Aetheria Exchange

Trust Model & FAQ

The fastest way to lose a sophisticated user is to hide your trust assumptions and let them find the assumptions themselves. So here they are, stated plainly.

What you do NOT have to trust

  • Custody: nobody holds your funds. Stakes live in the venue contract; every transaction is signed in your wallet; the server holds API credentials, never keys. There is no deposit, no balance, no withdrawal flow to trust.
  • Solvency: structurally guaranteed. Parimutuel payouts redistribute the market's own pools - the venue cannot owe more than it holds, so there is no house account to blow up.
  • The AI, for anything that moves money. Model outputs are schema-validated, coerced, and guarded server-side; hedge pairings are enforced in code; and the resolver's settlements are re-derivable from the public sources the market titles name. You can check its work - see Contracts & API.
  • Permanent fund lockup. Any market unsettled 7 days past close can be cancelled by anyone (forceCancelStale), refunding every stake. Even if the operator vanishes, funds are recoverable without any key.

What you DO have to trust - today

  • Settlement honesty, for seven days. resolveMarket is owner-only with no on-chain check against reality: a malicious owner could resolve falsely and collect the losing pool. The escape hatch bounds abandonment, not dishonesty. Mitigations today are transparency ones - machine markets settle from named public sources, so a false settlement is publicly provable. The roadmap replaces the owner key with oracle-fed resolution and a multisig.
  • Data sources. Machine settlements read CoinGecko, DefiLlama, and Yahoo Finance. The dispute band (refuse anything within 1% of the threshold) exists precisely because these sources approximate; a source going down delays settlement (safe) rather than corrupting it.
  • Infrastructure liveness. One inference provider (0G Compute), one VPS for the fleet, public X Layer RPCs. Degradation is honest - labeled offline modes, manual queues - but liveness is not yet redundant.
  • Unaudited code. 11/11 contract tests and repeated adversarial review (the fix commits are the audit trail), but no professional audit. Treat the venue accordingly; this is hackathon-stage software.

FAQ

Why can't I sell my position? Parimutuel pools have no secondary market - that is the price of structural solvency. Most venue-authored markets are 24-hour, so lock-up is short, and the DEX hedge leg lets you adjust exposure in spot meanwhile. Transferable positions (ERC-1155) are on the roadmap.

Why did my payout change after I bet? Payouts are set by the pools at close, not at entry. The ticket quotes an estimate "at current pools" and says exactly this. If more stake joins your side, your share of the losing pool shrinks.

Who pays the winners? The losers. Winners split the losing pool pro-rata (minus the 2% protocol fee, taken from the losing pool only), plus their own stake back. See the worked example in Parimutuel Markets.

What happens if nobody bet against me? The market cancels instead of resolving and everyone is refunded in full. The contract refuses to declare a winner nobody backed - and the UI disables resolve buttons for an unbacked side so an operator cannot trip this by accident either.

What if a market's question turns out to be ambiguous? The resolver refuses it to the manual queue; the owner can cancel-and- refund; and past 7 days anyone can. Refund is always the fallback, never a forced guess.

Why does the AGENT OPS console show agents as "LAST 52M AGO"? Because they are cron jobs and that is the truth - the resolver runs hourly, the drafter daily. The timestamps tracking the cron schedule are the proof the fleet is real. See The Four Agents.

Is my chat history private? It is encrypted in your browser before it goes anywhere; the server and 0G Storage only ever see ciphertext, keyed per wallet. See The AI Co-Pilot - including the honest cross-device limitation.

Is any of this financial advice? No. Prediction markets and spot trades carry risk of total loss. The AI's odds are model estimates, labeled as such.

Roadmap, abbreviated

Oracle-fed resolution + multisig ownership · professional audit · ERC-1155 transferable positions and scalar markets · indexer-backed full history and leaderboards · 0G-KV pointer registry for cross-device memory · yield-bearing "no-loss" pools (Pendle PT float) · embedded-wallet social login with sponsored gas.